基于时延估计与时序加权的水泥窑温度预测

CEMENT KILN TEMPERATURE PREDICTION BASED ON TIME DELAY ESTIMATION AND TIME SERIES WEIGHTING

  • 摘要: 针对水泥窑温度预测模型未考虑输出值对过程参数的时延影响问题,提出一种模糊曲线动态时延估计和时序加权的方法。根据模糊曲线确定各参数的总体时延,再利用自适应滑动窗计算动态时延;引入高斯函数进行时序加权,获得最具因果关系的输入-输出样本;使用分层极限学习机训练和建立水泥窑窑头温度预测模型。实验结果表明,考虑动态时延信息以及时序加权有助于提高水泥窑温度预测模型的预测精度。

     

    Abstract: In order to solve the problem that the influence of output value on the delay of process parameters is not considered in the prediction model of cement kiln temperature, a method of fuzzy curve dynamic time delay estimation and time series weighting is proposed. The total delay of each parameter was determined according to the fuzzy curve, and the dynamic delay was calculated by the adaptive sliding window. A Gaussian function was introduced to carry out timing weighting to obtain the most causal input-output samples. The stratified extreme learning machine was used to train and establish the temperature prediction model of cement kiln head. The experimental results show that considering the dynamic time delay information and time series weighting can improve the prediction accuracy of the cement kiln temperature prediction model.

     

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