基于混合频率 GARCH 和 LSTM 融合的波动率预测

STOCK INDEX VOLATILITY PREDICTION BASED ON MIXED-FREQUENCY GARCH AND LSTM

  • 摘要: 混合频率 GARCH 类模型可建立低频宏观经济变量与高频股指波动的联系,但其强线性特征会体现出局限性。为减小预测误差,提出一种混合频率 GARCH 和 LSTM 融合的波动率预测方法。分别建立单一的混合频率 GARCH 和 LSTM 模型并加入对比;建立两者的融合模型,即将混合频率 GARCH 的残差项作为 LSTM 输入,二者叠加形成最终输出。结果表明单一模型在波动率频繁变化时拟合良好,但极端变化时偏移量增加,多因子 GJR-GARCH 的融合模型可解决此问题。两种模型残差项在 Diebold-Mariano 检验中 1% 水平下拒绝原假设,该融合模型显著提升了预测精确度。

     

    Abstract: Mixed-frequency GARCH models can establish the relationship between low-frequency macroeconomic variables and high-frequency stock index volatility, but their strong linear characteristics will reflect the limitations. In order to reduce the prediction error, a volatility prediction method based on hybrid frequency GARCH and LSTM is proposed. A single mixed-frequency GARCH and LSTM model was established and compared. The fusion model of the two was established, that was, the residual term of GARCH with mixed frequency was used as the LSTM input, and the two were superposed to form the final output. The results show that the single model fits well when the volatility changes frequently, but the offset increases when the volatility changes extremely. The multi-factor GJR-GARCH fusion model can solve this problem. The residual terms of the two models reject the null hypothesis at the 1% level in the Diebold-Mariano test, and the fusion model significantly improves the prediction accuracy.

     

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