基于多周期趋势分解和两阶段注意力LSTM的短期负荷预测

SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECASTING BASED ON MULTIPLE SEASONAL-TREND DECOMPOSITION USING LOESS AND TWO-STAGE ATTENTION LSTM

  • 摘要: 为了提高电力负荷预测的准确度,提出一种基于多周期趋势分解和两阶段注意力LSTM的短期负荷预测新方法。利用多周期趋势分解算法将原始负荷序列分解为趋势分量、日周期分量、周周期分量和剩余分量;引入特征和时间注意力机制,建立两阶段注意力LSTM负荷预测模型,从特征和时间两个维度提取潜在信息,并采用该模型对各分量进行预测,将各分量预测结果叠加,得到最终负荷预测值。实验结果表明,该模型相比于其他预测模型具有更高的预测精度和稳定性。

     

    Abstract: In order to improve the accuracy of power load forecasting, a novel short-term load forecasting method based on multiple seasonal-trend decomposition using Loess and two-stage attention LSTM is proposed. The multiple seasonal-trend decomposition using Loess algorithm was used to decompose the original load series into trend component, daily periodic component, weekly periodic component and residual component. The feature attention mechanism and temporal attention mechanism were introduced to establish a two-stage attention LSTM load forecasting model. The potential information was extracted from the two dimensions of feature and time. Each component was predicted by this model and the prediction results were superimposed to obtain the final load forecasting value. The experimental results show that the proposed forecasting model has higher prediction accuracy and stability than other forecasting models.

     

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